Rumors of the death of the internal combustion (IC) engine are great exaggerated. (The IC engine is what's under your car's hood, you know, burns gasoline, makes the car go vroom.) That according to an article in today's Wall Street Journal (sub. required, I'm sure).
Despite progress in hybrids and plug-in hybrids and fuel cells, the IC engine is here to stay:
Gasoline and diesel are the world's dominant motor-vehicle fuels for good reasons. They are easily transported and easily stored. They deliver more power per gallon than ethanol or other biofuels. And until recently petroleum fuels were a bargain, particularly for consumers in the U.S. Even now, gasoline in the U.S. is cheaper by the gallon than many brands of bottled water. But what about hybrids and improvements in technology? Well, there's improvements coming in gasoline engines, too. "There are a lot of improvements coming to the internal-combustion engine," says John German, manager for environmental and energy analysis at Honda Motor Co.'s U.S. unit. Refinements to current gasoline motors, driven by advances in electronic controls, could result in motors that are a third to half the size and weight of current engines, allowing for lighter, more-efficient vehicles with comparable power. That, Mr. German says, "will make it harder for alternative technologies to succeed." By 2020, many mainstream cars could be labeled "hybrids." But most of these hybrids will run virtually all the time on conventional fuels. The "hybrid" technology will be a relatively low-cost "micro hybrid" system that shuts the car off automatically at a stop light, and then restarts it and gives it a mild boost to accelerate. The problems is, people are still going to need big and (relatively) powerful cars if they live in the suburbs or rural areas where mass transit is minimal or absent. Cars that can do more than just haul a commuter to work. And even by 2020, battery technology won't give it to them. The Chevy Volt may be the next greatest thing, but it can't haul a family to soccer practice. For that you need the exothermic combustion of distilled hydrocarbons. That is, a gasoline engine.
I think we may yet see innovations in electric technology as well, so let's not write off electric vehicles either.
But I agree that the ICE is here to stay, especially if governments keep enacting laws that virtually guarantee it. What is a government biofuels mandate -- 15 years hence in the case of the current "Renewable Fuels Standard" (and Midwest politicians are calling for one for 2030) -- if not a strong vote for the continuation of the ICE? Ethanol and biodiesel don't work in electric motors: they require internal combustion engines.
So much for technologically neutral policy.
Posted by: RPS | September 21, 2008 at 10:06 PM